An analysis of political prisoner release dynamics and the role of international engagement
Methodology
This article analyzes cases of the release of political prisoners prior to the completion of their sentences — both in the form of pardons and amnesties, as well as forced displacement abroad, which in both cases constitutes the termination of actual deprivation of liberty.
Throughout the text, the general term “release” (“released individuals”) is used.
Data Methodology
The number of individuals announced as released does not correspond to the number of identified political prisoners, as such announcements include various categories of convicted persons.
Three levels of data are used in this analysis:
1. Announced releases
The total number of individuals whose release was officially announced. This figure includes all categories of those released, without distinction by status.
2. Identified political prisoners
Individuals whose release has been confirmed by name and whose status as political prisoners has been verified based on data from human rights organizations.
3. Unidentified or unconfirmed cases
Cases where releases are announced but insufficient information is available to identify individuals or confirm their status.
This category may include:
political prisoners whose names are not established or not publicly disclosed;
politically persecuted individuals who do not fall under the category of political prisoners (e.g., those sentenced to restriction of liberty);
- other categories of those released.
Data Commentary
In some cases, information about specific individuals is unavailable, which explains the existence of a category of unidentified releases. This particularly concerns individuals who remain in Belarus and often do not report their release or re-establish contact with human rights organizations — including due to fear of persecution or direct restrictions imposed by the authorities.
Official release announcements do not fully reflect the actual number of released political prisoners. Releases tend to occur in waves. A significant proportion of cases remains non-public or cannot be fully verified, which complicates an accurate assessment of the scale of releases.
Data Sources
Data on released political prisoners is based on information from human rights organizations and open-source databases.
Data on women political prisoners is based on the Belarus Women’s Foundation database (Women Released-Pardoned section).
Data on men political prisoners was cross-checked using the databases of Viasna and Dissidentby. This comparison was conducted through cross-verification of information across these sources.
In some cases, minor discrepancies (±1–2 individuals) may occur due to differences in classification, data updates, and verification criteria across sources.
Phase I. The Role of Poland (July 2024 – January 2025)
“Ultimatum for Lukashenka”
In the spring and summer of 2024, tensions between Belarus and Poland increased sharply. The migration crisis, the death of a Polish serviceman at the border, and the fate of political prisoners required a response.
The civic initiative “Ultimatum for Lukashenka” submitted proposals to the Polish authorities, which were subsequently reviewed at the highest state level. After weighing the economic risks, the Polish government decided to support partial restrictions on freight movement at the border. These measures were prepared within a narrow circle and were accompanied by diplomatic notifications, including to the top leadership of China.
Following reports of plans to close the border, on 27 June 2024 Lukashenka dismissed the Minister of Foreign Affairs. Events then began to develop rapidly, triggering the process of releasing political prisoners.
Key events
3 July 2024 — Poland temporarily suspended rail transit through the Małaszewicze terminal, one of the key logistics hubs between the East and the EU. The suspension lasted 33 hours and had a demonstrative character.
3 July 2024 — Lukashenka signed a decree ordering the release of 18 individuals.
4 July 2024 — representatives of the “Ultimatum” initiative held a symbolic action partially blocking Road No. 68 at the Polish-Belarusian border, demanding the release of political prisoners and an end to the migration crisis.
Sources
https://t.me/democraticBLR/507
https://t.me/democraticBLR/318
Urgent Appeal: Ultimatum to Lukashenka from the EU (belaruswomen.org)
Announced releases
In the period from July 2024 to January 2025 (parts 1–10 / Poland involvement), the Belarusian authorities announced the release of 259 individuals (71 women and 188 men).
Of the total number of announced releases (259):
199 individuals (63 women and 136 men) have been identified as political prisoners;
60 individuals remain unidentified.
Detailed breakdown of released women political prisoners
Phase I. Poland Involvement / Parts 1-10
July 2024 -January 2025
Source: Women Released | Женщины Освобождены (belaruswomen.org)
Phase II. The Role of the United States (February 2025 – March 2026)
Belarus Democratic Forum and appeals by Nobel laureates
n February 2025, the Belarusian Democratic Forum organized an appeal by Nobel laureates to U.S. President Donald Trump, calling for measures to secure the release of political prisoners in Belarus. Coordination of this effort was entrusted to John Cole.
On 15 August 2025, the Belarusian Democratic Forum submitted a proposal to the U.S. President to raise the issue of political prisoners during a meeting with V. Putin in Alaska. According to available information, the appeal was promptly delivered to the President, after which he decided to take personal involvement in the matter.
In the following days, additional appeals by Nobel laureates were submitted, calling for the release of all political prisoners and an end to criminal prosecution. Following this, the process of releases intensified.
In January 2026, Donald Trump and John Cole were nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts aimed at securing the release of political prisoners in Belarus.
Sources
https://t.me/belarusforumorg/279
https://t.me/democraticBLR/501
The Role of Nobel Laureates in Securing the Release of Political Prisoners in Belarus (belarusforum.org)
Announced releases
In the period from February 2025 to March 2026 (parts 11–22 / USA involvement), the Belarusian authorities announced the release of 600 individuals (166 women and 434 men).
Of the total number of announced releases (600):
440 individuals (104 women and 336 men) have been identified as political prisoners;
160 individuals remain unidentified.
Detailed breakdown of released women political prisoners
Phase II. USA Involvement / Parts 11-22
February 2025 - March 2026:
Source: Women Released | Женщины Освобождены (belaruswomen.org)
Overall Results (2024–2026)
In the period from July 2024 to March 2026 (parts 1–22), during the involvement of Poland and the United States, 639 political prisoners were released in Belarus:
— 199 political prisoners during the period of Poland’s involvement;
— 440 political prisoners during the period of U.S. involvement.
Of the 639 released political prisoners, 167 were women and 472 were men:
The data show that the pattern of releases was wave-like and intensified during periods of external pressure — first from Poland, then from the United States.
The case of women illustrates that during the period of Poland’s involvement, releases were sporadic and did not lead to a sustained decrease in the overall number of political prisoners, whereas in the U.S. phase the most significant reductions were recorded:
Political Prisoner Releases in Belarus: Comparison of Periods (2020–2026)
(pardons and amnesties)
The period from 2020 to June 2024 — the first four years following the onset of mass repression in Belarus — was characterised by an extremely limited number of releases: only 30 cases (including pardons and amnesties).
Against this background, the subsequent less than two years of external engagement (Poland — 199, United States — 440 identified cases) demonstrate a sharp turning point in the dynamics of releases.
At the same time, no comparable effect in terms of large-scale releases associated with the actions of the European Union is observed during the period under review — despite the availability of instruments of influence and substantial financial resources (see EU support to the people of Belarus).
Key Conclusion
Taken together, these observations lead to the following conclusion:
Releases of political prisoners in Belarus occur where there is political will to actively apply external pressure.
The decisive factor is not only the availability of resources and leverage, but also the willingness to use them.